Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Image: Aaj Tak (File Photo))
After the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, Ali Khamenei took over as Iran's Supreme Leader. Khamenei kept his hold on Iran strong despite sanctions and constant international tensions as well as internal opposition within the country. His influence is not only on Iran but also on Shia Muslims all over the world. Now that a direct war has broken out between Israel and Iran, Khamenei is also on the target. In such a situation, questions are being raised: What will happen if Khamenei is killed by Israel?
Khamenei is 86 years old, so the issue of his succession is already there in Iran. That is, even if he is not attacked, he does not have much tenure left. But the current tension has further increased this concern, in which it is said that Israel had planned to kill the Supreme Leader of Iran. He has been an important face of the Islamic Republic since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, in which Iran's ruler Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was ousted from power.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also not denied the reports of a plot to assassinate Khamenei spreading in the media. When asked about this by an ABC News journalist, he said, "Targeting Khamenei will not escalate the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran but will end it."
After his statement, a discussion has started on what will happen to Iran if Iran's Supreme Leader is assassinated. Will Iran completely come to its knees, or will another Supreme Leader easily face external aggression, Western sanctions and internal opposition and keep Iran standing up to its commitments?
Iran's Supreme Leader is always under a tight security cover. Ali Khamenei has not left Iran since taking office, and his last foreign trip was to North Korea in 1989 while he was president. Israel's success in assassinating prominent Iranian figures, including the army chief and Revolutionary Guards chief, has proven that its intelligence agencies can keep an eye on Iranian leaders and can also target the Supreme Leader after receiving orders from Netanyahu.
After the death of former Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in May 2024, Iran easily elected Pezeshkian as president by holding elections. The same was seen after the IRGC and military chiefs were killed in the recent strike; other officials were given postings in Iran within a few hours. Despite the continuous target killings by Israel, Iran has managed to strengthen itself and respond to every aggression. But in the case of the Supreme Leader, it does not seem so easy.
Foreign affairs expert Qamar Agha says that if Ali Khamenei is assassinated in Iran, someone will take his place. But so far all the leaders who were expected to succeed him have been assassinated. At present, there is no name of that level in Iran who can replace the Supreme Leader.
Qamar Agha further said that he is very popular in Iran. Iran has progressed a lot during his tenure – be it in science or defence – and he has also been committed to the Islamic revolution. He was also very popular during the Islamic Revolution and was a very good speaker. Someone will take over the post after him, but it will be difficult to run Iran by tying it in one string like this.
At present, there is an Islamic rule in Iran, which is headed by Ali Khamenei. The question is also being raised whether there will be a change in Iran's ideology after his death. On this question, Qamar Agha says that as long as there are war conditions, the power of Iran will remain in the hands of hardliners. If peace is established in the future, then liberal and progressive leadership may get a chance.
At present, Iran and Israel are constantly attacking each other. Due to which there is a fear of war spreading in the entire region. What turn this fight takes will be known only in the coming time, but it is clear that Iran does not have a person of Khamenei's stature right now.
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